Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
